Everyone's eyes are on Tesla (TSLA) stock right now—up about 7% to close at $395.94 on September 12, 2025, after a bumpy year that's seen it dip to $222 lows in March before clawing back toward break-even from 2024's $404 close. With volatility from EV demand slowdowns, CEO Elon Musk's headlines, and autonomy hype, it's no wonder traders are glued. Let's break it down: what Tesla is, how to track it, my 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1 expectations, upcoming milestones, a reasonable price target, and how I crunch the numbers.
What Is Tesla, and How Do You Track It?
Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) is more than just electric cars—it's an automotive, energy, and AI powerhouse founded in 2003 by Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, with Elon Musk joining as chairman in 2004 and CEO in 2008. Named after inventor Nikola Tesla, the company designs, builds, and sells EVs like the Model 3, Y, S, X, Cybertruck, Semi, and upcoming Roadster, plus energy products (solar panels, Powerwall batteries, Megapack storage) and software like Full Self-Driving (FSD). In 2024, automotive brought in ~$77B (despite competition), energy grew fast, and regulatory credits added $2.76B—though that's waning with broader EV adoption.
Headquartered in Austin, Texas, Tesla operates factories in the US, Germany, and China, with a mission to accelerate sustainable energy. It's vertically integrated (batteries, software, Superchargers), but faces headwinds like softening demand and subsidy cuts from the 2025 "One Big Beautiful Bill Act."
How to track it?
- Real-time price/charts: Yahoo Finance, Google Finance, or Nasdaq for TSLA quotes (current: ~$396 as of mid-Sept 2025).
- News/alerts: Tesla's IR site (ir.tesla.com) for earnings (next: Oct 22, 2025), X for Musk's unfiltered takes, or apps like Seeking Alpha for analyst notes.
- Key metrics: Watch deliveries (Q2 2025: 384K vehicles), energy deployments (9.6 GWh in Q2), and FSD adoption.
Tools like TradingView for technicals or Finviz for fundamentals.
What's Coming Next? Key Milestones
Tesla's pipeline is stacked with autonomy and affordability bets. From recent updates:
- Affordable EV (~$30K "Model Q"/Model 2): Production starts H1 2025 (possibly June), blending next-gen and current platforms for quick ramp. A stripped-down Model Y variant could hit in Q4 2025.
- Refreshed Model Y "Juniper": Ramp ongoing post-Q1 retooling; U.S. production eyes Q4 2025 with better range/efficiency.
- Robotaxi "Cybercab": Unsupervised FSD in Austin by late 2025; volume production 2026 via "unboxed" manufacturing.
- Tesla Semi & Optimus Robot: Both ramp in 2026, boosting energy/industrial revenue.
- Events: Q3 earnings Oct 22, 2025; potential shareholder meeting on Musk's comp in Nov/Dec.
These could reignite growth, with analysts eyeing 11-17% delivery uptick in 2025.
My Expectations: 2025 Q4 and 2026 Q1
Short-term: Bullish rally into year-end 2025, then choppy re-accumulation early 2026. Q4 2025 should see strong deliveries (last rush for fading EV credits) and affordable model buzz, pushing stock to $450-500 amid rate cuts and Musk's comp resolution. Earnings growth ~20-30% YoY, revenue ~$30B, fueled by energy surge (67% Q1 growth) and FSD rollout. X sentiment echoes this: "Strong finish to 2025... then re-accumulation in H1 2026 as new models ramp."
Q1 2026: Softer start (factory ramps, post-credit hangover), with deliveries flat-to-up 5% but margins squeezed. Stock could dip to $350-400 in a "choppy" phase, per X threads, as markets digest autonomy delays. Upside from Cybercab unveils; overall, 15-20% revenue growth but volatility until H2 ramps. Bear case: Sub-$300 if S&P corrects 10-15%.
Longer-term (end-2026): $600+ breakout as Robotaxi scales, per analysts and X bulls.
What's a Reasonable Stock Price?
Analysts' consensus: Hold rating, 12-month target ~$310-323 (downside from $396), with wide range ($115 bear to $500 bull). For end-2025: $458 average, up to $500 on catalysts. End-2026: $420-474, potentially $956+ if autonomy hits.
My take: Reasonable fair value is $420-450 by end-2025 (6-14% upside), assuming 17.5% revenue growth to $117B and EPS ~$2.85. By mid-2026, $500+ as multiples compress on earnings. It's undervalued long-term at current forward PE ~130x if FSD delivers 30%+ growth. (Note: Recent DCF models peg intrinsic at $176-51, suggesting overvaluation—but they undervalue autonomy upside.)
How Do I Calculate It? A Simple DCF Walkthrough
I use Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) for a fundamentals-based "reasonable" price—projecting future free cash flows (FCF), discounting to present value, then dividing by shares outstanding. It's transparent but assumption-heavy (growth, discount rate). Here's how (using Python for precision; based on 2025 estimates: FCF $10B starting, 25% growth Years 1-5, 3% terminal, 10% discount rate, 3.2B shares).
Step-by-Step:
- Project FCF: Start with current FCF (~$8-10B trailing). Assume aggressive growth (25% YoY for 5 years on autonomy/energy), then terminal at inflation (3%).
- Discount Rate (WACC): ~10% (cost of equity; market avg 11%, but Tesla's beta ~1.2).
- Terminal Value: Year 5 FCF × (1 + terminal growth) / (discount - growth) = perpetuity.
- Present Value (PV): Discount each FCF: FCF / (1 + rate)^year. Sum PVs + PV terminal.
- Enterprise Value (EV): Total PV. Subtract net debt (~$5B), divide by shares for equity value/share.
Sample Calc (conservative; real models vary):
- Year 1 FCF: $12.5B (25% growth)
- Years 2-5: Compound to ~$30B by Year 5.
- Terminal (Year 5): $30B × 1.03 / (0.10 - 0.03) = $433B.
- PV FCFs (Years 1-5): ~$80B.
- PV Terminal: ~$260B.
- EV: $340B. Equity Value: $335B (low debt). Per share: $335B / 3.2B shares = ~$105 (bearish base; amp growth to 30% for $420+).
This matches analyst ranges—bullish on Robotaxi (add $100B+ FCF by 2030) gets $500+. Tools like GuruFocus or Excel make it easy; tweak for optimism.Tesla's a high-beta bet—volatility ahead, but autonomy could 10x it. NFA; DYOR. What's your TSLA thesis?
Disclaimer: This information is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Investing in stocks, including Tesla (TSLA), involves significant risks, including the potential loss of capital. Stock prices are subject to volatility based on market conditions, company performance, economic factors, and other unpredictable variables. The projections, expectations, and price targets mentioned (e.g., $420-500 for 2025 Q4) are based on analysis of available data as of 10:27 PM HKT on September 15, 2025, and are speculative in nature. They do not guarantee future performance and may differ from actual results. The calculations (e.g., DCF model) rely on assumptions that may change, and I am not a licensed financial advisor. Please conduct your own research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Not Financial Advice (NFA).